Archives for posts with tag: Trade

Relations between the US and China have been back in the headlines recently, with tensions seemingly on the rise once more. For the shipping industry, the US-China ‘trade war’ was one of the key issues of 2018-19, and the ‘phase one’ trade deal in early 2020 was an encouraging sign that US-China trade could pick up. But with Covid-19 dominating trends in the year to date, how have volumes fared so far?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

This year, the shipping industry is expected to transport 12bn tonnes of cargo. That’s double the volume shipped in 2000 and four times the trade in 1980; the result of economic growth and globalisation. Dry bulk and container trade were at the heart of this in the boom of the 2000s, but both over time and across sectors the seaborne trade growth environment continues to evolve.

 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Oil prices have always been big news for shipping and offshore, and are currently making the headlines. Since early October, crude prices have undergone one of the lengthiest periods of steady decline on record. Whilst the steep drops from the heights of $147/bbl in 2008 and $114/bbl in 2014 were clearly more substantial as a whole, the recent downward trend is certainly noteworthy. So what’s going on?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The shipping industry is essential to the smooth functioning of the world economy, transporting around 85% of the world’s international trade in tonnage terms. So it comes as no surprise that ships are all over the world at any given time. However, the ability to identify ships’ positions by vessel tracking systems today means that one can be more precise than ever in breaking this down a little further…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

A key driver of seaborne trade growth over the last two decades has been the spectacular economic rise of China. With the Chinese economy likely to gradually mature, the idea of the “next China” for shipping has been often discussed, and India has often been put forward in this context. There are many factors to consider, but in any evaluation of this possibility, trends in India’s energy sector are highly significant.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

It’s a classic movie theme: in order to overcome potential challenges or make the most of upcoming opportunities, the protagonist first has to hit the gym and get bigger, stronger and fitter. Of course, in the movies, this is all shown via montages; in reality, things tend to take a little longer. That being said, the average-sized ship in some fleets has been gaining heft relatively quickly in recent years…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

A well-known football manager once commented on the “bouncebackability” of his team after they had followed a defeat with a victory. This year and last, global seaborne trade growth, following a weaker performance in 2015, has illustrated its ability to bounce back strongly, and on the back of a range of positive trends is currently expected to reach close to 4% in full year 2017.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The development of the global merchant fleet is affected by a very broad range of interwoven supply and demand factors, including shipping and commodity cycles, investor sentiment, regulatory concerns, yard capacity and so on. Another factor is shore-side infrastructure projects, which can be tricky to disentangle from the wider web, though this influence is a little clearer on, for example, the LNG carrier sector…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The Wall Street Crash in 1929 marked the onset of the Great Depression in the US. Times were tough, but jazz music, which had taken off in the 1920s, endured and evolved into the era of big bands and swing music now synonymous with the 1930s. The crude tanker sector is having a tricky time of its own at present, but over the last decade, crude trade patterns have seen their own evolutionary swing…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Conventionally, the container shipping market is viewed as made up of two key elements: the freight market for moving boxes from A to B, and the charter market for hiring ships. Often these markets are happily moving in sync, but that’s not always the case. How does the relationship work and how closely have these markets moved in relation to each other, both in recent times and historically?

Happy Couple?

Let’s start with recent history. Improved fundamentals in 2016, when box trade grew by 3.8% but containership capacity expanded by just 1.2%, and into 2017, have had a twin impact on the container shipping markets. Firstly they helped the box freight market bottom out. The mainlane freight rate index (see graph) increased from 24 in Mar-16 to 73 in Jan-17, and this pattern has been mirrored across many trade lanes. Secondly, the backdrop eventually helped support a slightly improved charter market, with rates moving away from the bottom of the cycle in late Q1 2017. In theory, demand from freight market end users (shippers) filters down to the vessel charter market in the end, with additional volume driving charterers (liner companies) to access additional units (from owners).

Splits And Separations

But does the power of the fundamentals always drag the two markets along together? It is not always the case; they often move apart. Before the financial crisis, the freight market appeared somewhat less volatile than today, but that did not always see the markets in sync. Despite more than 20% cargo growth in 2005-06, and the freight market holding most of its ground, the charter rate index slumped by 47% from an all-time high of 172 in Apr-05 to 91 in Dec-06, as super-cycle peak rates proved unsustainable.

The post-downturn period has seen similar instances. The box shipping markets moved into an era of ‘micro’ management of supply (slow steaming, idling and cascading) and this has impacted both freight and charter markets. In both early 2011 and 1H 2015 charter rates rose as freight rates dropped like a stone. In 2011 the freight rate index dropped by 38% to 47 whilst the charter rate index rallied, as operators deployed additional capacity to the detriment of freight rates. But soon after the opposite occurred, and freight rates increased but charter rates dropped back to bottom of the cycle levels where they remained for the next three years.

Re-Coupling…

In the long-term, however, the two spheres do appear to be aligned. What simple inspection suggests, the numbers confirm. In only 33 of the months on the graph (21%) have the markets actually moved in opposite directions (excluding monthly movements of less than 1%).

Let’s Stick Together!

So, the two box markets do move independently at times but they often move in sync and when apart they tend to re-align (what econometricians might call an ‘error correction mechanism’). Perhaps this just confirms that ‘cargo is king’ and the supply side eventually adjusts. Whatever the case, box shipping’s famous couple can’t keep themselves apart for too long. Have a nice day.

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