Archives for posts with tag: Technology

In this week’s analysis, we again update shipping’s mid-year report, reviewing progress across a range of shipping sector “subjects”. Our overall ClarkSea Index increased 8% y-o-y in the first half, to move marginally above the trend since the financial crisis. However while some “subjects” still achieve an “A” for effort, others might have to “repeat a year” unless they sit additional classes over the summer!

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

We all know shipbuilding is one of the toughest businesses around but just how tough was 2018? Well it seems the answer depends on which unit of measurement you use! Using DWT, ordering fell 14% to 77m dwt while using CGT, a better reflection of the work content of building vessels, ordering increased by 2%. On balance its seems that conditions remain challenging but still improving on the 2016 lows.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset of the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Next month over 50,000 will gather for the biennial SMM fair in Hamburg. Since the last fair (coinciding with the lowest ever ClarkSea Index!) there have been major developments, not least in environmental regulation. Despite an eroding newbuild orderbook, a modest uptick in ordering and recent enthusiasm for scrubbers are set to combine with plenty of positive discussion around technology and digitalisation!

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Fluid dynamics is the study of non-solid matter: that which is mutable, volatile and mercurial! The analogies with the complex world of gas and seaborne LNG trade are obvious. But just as fluid dynamics is a framework for analysing the maelstrom of physical reality, so too can the gas trade be viewed through various helpful frameworks, for example that of the changing global energy mix.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Historically, the fuel of choice for the vast majority of large cargo ships has been heavy fuel oil. But in 2020, sulphur oxide emissions will be capped to 0.5% by IMO convention, ruling out current standard grades of HFO. Both fuel consumers in the shipping industry and producers in the refining industry have now had a little time to consider the potential options to deal with the imminent regulatory change…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

“Look after the pennies and the pounds look after themselves” goes the saying, a mantra the shipping industry has a long taken to heart. In this week’s Analysis, we review trends in ship operating expenses (OPEX) that have taken the total cost base of the shipping industry through the $100 billion barrier for the very first time.

Watching The Pennies!

Of all global industries, perhaps few have had the extreme cost focus of shipping over the past 30 years. During the 1980s recession, any operating “fat” was largely removed with the growth of open registries and a drive to outsourcing. This helped shipping, alongside its near “perfect” competitive economic model, deliver exceptionally cheap and secure freight, in turn a key facilitator of globalisation.

Nice And Lean…

OPEX response since the financial crisis has been relatively modest. Our average OPEX index (using the ClarkSea “fleet” mix and information from Moore Stephens) shows just a 1% decrease in OPEX since the financial crisis to $6,451/day in 2016. By comparison, the ClarkSea Index dropped 71%, from $32,660/day in 2008 to $9,441/day in 2016 (a record low). In part, this modest, albeit painfully achieved, drop reflects upward pressures from an expanding fleet and items such as crew and ever- increasing regulation. However it also reflects the already lean nature of OPEX.

$100 Billion And Counting…

Our estimate for aggregate global OPEX for the world’s cargo fleet has now breached $100 billion for the first time, up from $98 billion last year and $83 billion in 2008. The largest constituent remains crew wages ($43 billion covering 1.4 million crew across the fleet). By comparison aggregate ship earnings for our cargo fleet fell from an eye watering $291 billion in 2008 to $123 billion in 2016!

Cutting The Fat…

One sector that has seen dramatic cost reduction has been offshore. Estimates vary, but 30% seems a reasonable rule of thumb for reductions in OPEX since 2014. While painful, this has been part of a process of making offshore more competitive against other energy sources (offshore contributes 28% of oil production, 31% of gas, and 16% of all energy) and one of the factors behind the increase in sanctioning of offshore projects.

Getting Smarter…

So shipping is one of the leanest industries around but is always under pressure to do more! It seems clear that squeezing cost in the traditional sense, offshore aside, will be pretty challenging — UK media reported on the docking of the 20,150 teu MOL Triumph, highlighting it was manned by only 20 crew! Getting smarter, collecting and using “big data” and technology and automation are all gaining traction. The industry’s fuel bill (accounted for outside of OPEX) is clearly a big target.

This will all require new technology, skills and perhaps new accounting approaches. Plenty of food for thought but it seems like just going on another severe diet won’t work this time. Have a nice day!

SIW1272