Archives for posts with tag: Sales & Purchase

Covid-19 has created some huge challenges for the shipping industry, but the shipping markets have seen an impressive rebound and notable “disruption upside”. Since the onset of the pandemic we’ve reported on some extraordinary market dynamics, including some spectacular earnings this year and major asset price swings. This week we put this in the context of returns seen on pre-crisis investments.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

A year ago the Sale and Purchase (S&P) markets were struggling with huge Covid-19 economic uncertainty and the wide ranging logistical challenges of delivering a ship. While difficulties remain (especially around crew transfer), sales volumes have picked up to record levels with over 84m dwt of tonnage bought and sold in the first half and, in some segments, “eye-watering” asset value increases.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Last week we reported on some of the recent dramatic swings in asset pricing (see SIW 1,468), noting that these shifts were taking place against the backdrop of an extremely active S&P market. Indeed, after recovering quickly and robustly from the lows of Q2-20, the volume of secondhand sales has jumped to new records in recent months, with the March total an all-time high.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

In 2019, the shipping markets as a whole appear to have ‘warmed’ for the third consecutive year, and some key markets have sizzled at certain points. But at the same time it has been a different story in terms of fresh asset investment. Pulling the two elements together to take a wider reading of the shipping ‘temperature’ can help put this year into perspective…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

From one viewpoint, given the huge range of companies involved, the ownership of the world fleet can look quite fragmented. But from another, the prominence of larger owners who account for the majority of tonnage is quite clear too. Upon closer inspection however, some sectors appear proportionally more likely to be home to the bigger, more diversified players than others.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Since the 2H 2014 offshore downturn, when investment in new exploration and development dried up, many offshore vessel owners will have tended to agree with the child heroine of the 1976 musical Annie: “It’s a hard knock life”. However after three years of setbacks and weak markets, some are now starting to see positives, as a few indicators show encouraging signs. But does that mean it’s time to invest?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

One year ago we reported that it looked like container shipping was “at last starting to build towards something more positive” and that “2016 may well be seen as the year in which the container shipping sector really started to tackle its problems head on.” One year later, it looks like 2017 lived up to at least some of the expectations, with improved market conditions clearly visible.

 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

At this time of year, icy conditions are not uncommon, but the warmth of the festive season is usually enough to melt even the coldest of hearts. Going into this year, shipping market activity might have still felt pretty iced up for many, but increased activity in a number of core areas in 2017 has seen the shipping market temperature rise a little…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Looking at the ratio between newbuild and secondhand prices is a classic method of examining the state of various shipping sectors. But the metrics can be just as revealing at the older end of the market. Trends in the ratio between scrap values and secondhand prices for elderly vessels can shine further light on the health of the shipping markets, and can also have implications for fleet dynamics.

Health Check

Particularly stark signs of the current ill health of the key shipping sectors are apparent in the market dynamics for older units. With global steel prices determining ship scrap values (effectively the ‘floor’ for elderly secondhand vessel prices), the ratio of prices for older ships to estimated scrap values varies in line with market conditions. When markets are weak, investors may attribute little premium to the short-term earnings potential of elderly vessels, and secondhand prices for these ships can fall close to the scrap value.

On Life Support?

In the bulker sector, the ratio between assessments of 15 year old prices and scrap values has fluctuated dramatically. At end August 2016, amidst a depressed earnings environment, the price for a 15 year old Capesize stood at $8.0m, only 1.3 times the estimated Capesize scrap value of $6.2m, with the 20 year old price close to scrap value. These ratios have fallen in recent years as the market outlook has deteriorated, but even a 15 year old/scrap price ratio of over 2.0 in mid-2014 was a far cry from 2005-08 when 15 year old Capesize prices averaged more than 5 times scrap value, with ‘boom’ bulker earnings inflating asset values.

A similar trend has emerged in the containership sector. With charter rates largely in the doldrums since start 2012, the 15 year old price for a 2,000 TEU boxship has remained close to scrap value. Particular stress is also evident in the ‘old Panamax’ sector, with the price for a 15 year old 4,400 TEU ship now assessed at $5m, in line with estimated scrap values. In contrast, ratios in the tanker sector have generally risen in recent years. The 15 year old VLCC price was 3.5 times scrap value in early 2016, up from 1.3 times in early 2015. However, the ratio has recently dropped in line with weaker tanker earnings.

Elders On The Edge

As well as illustrating market trends, these ratios also influence fleet developments. Weaker markets and lower price ratios typically lead to more ships being scrapped rather than sold secondhand, as the ‘market mechanism’ helps to reduce oversupply. Across the bulker and containership sectors, over 70% of transactions of vessels 15+ years old since start 2012 have been accounted for by demolition sales, compared to just 11% in 2005-07. Increasingly young vessels are also being scrapped as a result.

Looking Poorly?

So, price ratios for older units can prove a useful indicator of the state of the markets. For assets generally expected to have a lifespan of 25 years or more, the historically low ratios of even 15 year old vessel prices to scrap values in some sectors is a clear and sobering reminder of the challenges still being faced.

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