Archives for posts with tag: oil prices

Last week’s Analysis took a long-term view of seaborne trade. This week, we look at the history of global oil demand, a key driver of seaborne trade (crude and products trade totalled 62m bpd last year, 25% of the total in tonnes), offshore oil production (25m bpd), and oil prices. In 2020, the now global spread of Covid-19 is leading to major disruption to oil demand, and the ‘long’ view provides an interesting context.
Shipping Intelligence Network.

Powered by ongoing innovation, drilling activity and infrastructure projects, the US energy revolution seems to be continuing apace, with the country likely to become a consistent net crude oil exporter within a few years. But as the recent FID at the 15.6 mtpa Golden Pass LNG plant in Texas suggests, seaborne LNG trade is being significantly affected by the shale boom in the US’s vast interior too…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The year just gone was a mixed one for offshore. Incremental progress continued towards rebalancing, while some sectors saw small day rate improvements compared to 2017. Overall though, challenges persisted in an oil price environment characterised by uncertainty and volatility. Several key indicators underperformed relative to start year sentiment and the year ended on something of a negative note.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

Oil prices have always been big news for shipping and offshore, and are currently making the headlines. Since early October, crude prices have undergone one of the lengthiest periods of steady decline on record. Whilst the steep drops from the heights of $147/bbl in 2008 and $114/bbl in 2014 were clearly more substantial as a whole, the recent downward trend is certainly noteworthy. So what’s going on?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The Middle East is a key component of global oil production. In total, it accounts for just under 25m bpd of oil output (or 30m bpd including NGLs), of which nearly a quarter is produced offshore. The Middle East also produces 63.5bn cfd of gas (64% offshore). The majority of Middle Eastern producers are OPEC members, so the group’s decisions have a large impact on production volumes in the region.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

As recent history demonstrates, if the global oil supply-demand balance moves from a deficit of supply to a surplus, or vice versa, the effect on oil prices and hence the offshore sector can be far reaching. At present, as 2019 draws nearer, oil demand and supply look to be increasingly finely balanced. However, there are still a range of uncertainties that could significantly shift the current oil supply-demand outlook.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

Next month over 50,000 will gather for the biennial SMM fair in Hamburg. Since the last fair (coinciding with the lowest ever ClarkSea Index!) there have been major developments, not least in environmental regulation. Despite an eroding newbuild orderbook, a modest uptick in ordering and recent enthusiasm for scrubbers are set to combine with plenty of positive discussion around technology and digitalisation!

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

2018 so far has been a year of firming oil prices. Despite continued strong output growth from US shale, the crude price has risen, with Brent even topping $80/bbl, fuelled by political risk: Venezuelan instability, North Korea and sanctions on Iran. Supply outages, plus higher prices muting demand, have hit the tanker market. However, the flip side has been more positive indications (at last) in the offshore sector.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Brazil’s offshore sector has faced various challenges in recent years but nevertheless still accounts for 11% of all offshore oil production, 20% of all ultra-deepwater fields and 23% of FPSO deployments globally. It also still has significant untapped potential, or at least so many international oil companies seem to think, if the results of the country’s most recent offshore block licensing rounds are any guide.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

After three consecutive years of falling offshore project CAPEX, things were a little more positive on the project sanctioning front in 2017, with major developments such as Coral FLNG Ph.1 receiving FIDs and total global offshore project CAPEX rising by 44% y-o-y. Sanctioning sentiment is still well below pre-downturn levels, but the relative positivity seems to be holding, so what might be on the cards for 2018?

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.