Archives for posts with tag: fields

SIW1098In 1961, the world’s first subsea completion was installed on a well in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the last 52 years the use of subsea trees has spread to the majority of offshore producing regions, with a total 4,851 trees installed by end-2012. Since 1990, the world has seen a growth in the number of deep water (>500m) tree installations. The use of subsea trees and developments appears set to revolutionise the offshore oil and gas industry, placing more focus on subsea fabricators.

Into the Deep End

The Graph of the Month shows the number of subsea trees installed per year from 1990 to 2016 (potential/under construction post-2013) and a breakdown of shallow versus deepwater installations. During 2011, the subsea tree demand hit a low point in the wake of 2008’s economic troubles. Since then however, the sector has seen a boom in tree installations, with expected future installations for 2014 up by 77% on 2013 and 2016 projected installations up a staggering 174% on 2013, with a total of 916 potential trees. Furthermore, the near future will demand more subsea trees with deep water, high pressure technologies, as shown by the increase in the share of trees in deep water of around 40 percentage points since 2000.

Subsea Honeypots

The region utilising the most subsea trees is NW Europe, with 1,638 active. The region’s ageing fields, containing smaller, marginal pay zones, mean that subsea trees and tie-backs provide a solution for continuing productivity in the North Sea. In Latin America, subsea trees are allowing for the development of wells in the ultra-deep water pre-salt plays of Brazil. The region has 919 active trees and accounts, along with West Africa, for many of the potential installations over 2013-2016. Subsea is not for everyone however: in the shallow Middle East, less than 40 trees are active, with wellhead platforms preferred.

Ready Yourselves

Given the extra subsea tree demand, how will the market cope? As previously highlighted, demand will have a bias, with many being required in the North Sea and Brazilian pre-salt areas. GE Oil & Gas have reportedly stepped up their UK manufacturing capacity for trees by circa 40%. However, with only 4 major subsea tree fabricators worldwide, supply may bottleneck in the coming years.

A boom in subsea tree demand will also affect the installation vessel markets. Traditionally, MODUs and other drilling vessels were used for tree installation. However, with the hike in rig costs (45% since end-2010 for jack-ups), installation contractors have been increasingly turning to installation by relatively cheaper MSVs. A total of 68 MSV vessels are on order, which despite accounting for 25% of the current fleet, may grow. There is also an additional 10% of the Dive and ROV Support fleet on order, a number which is likely to increase over the next 4 years.

So, Petrobras, Statoil and the supermajors are employing subsea technology increasingly frequently. Demand is growing for trees and associated infrastructure, along with installation units, promising a positive period for subsea fabricators.

OIMT_2013_09The South East Asia Oil Producing Area, consisting of Brunei, Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, accounted for 6.4% (1.6m bpd) and 16.8% (16.5 bcfpd) of global offshore oil and gas production respectively in 2012. Its 409 active offshore fields – 63.8% of those in the Asia Pacific – are mostly fixed platform developments. However, indicators suggest this historical tendency may be changing.

Shallow Water Bonanza

As the Graph of the Month shows, shallow water development types predominate within South East Asia. Together, fixed platforms, subsea tie-backs and extended reach drilling (ERD) accounts for 95% (388) of producing oil and gas fields in the area, reflecting the historical concentration of E&P activity in shallow Malaysian and Indonesian waters. The average water depth of producing fields is 70m and only nine are located in depths of more than 200m. SE Asia is thus comparable to the North Sea, where these development types also equate to 95% (614) of active fields and average field water depth is 91m.

Topsides Upside

Unlike in the North Sea though, active fields in South East Asia are heavily skewed towards fixed platforms: 77% (315) of active fields produce via fixed platforms in SE Asia. For the North Sea this figure is 40% (258). For every field exploited by subsea tie-back or ERD, there are 7.3 (for subsea) or 10.5 fields (for ERD) developed by fixed platforms in SE Asia. The equivalent global ratio is 2.9 or 9.0 fixed field developments per subsea or ERD field. SE Asia is also likely to remain a source of fabrication contracts for the foreseeable future: development by fixed platform accounts for 56% of fields under development in the area.

Subsea Rising

However, the Graph of the Month also shows a pronounced rise in subsea development: 11% of active fields are subsea tie-backs but 24% of fields under development are such. The average water depth of existing subsea fields in SE Asia is 150m whereas for fields under development by subsea tie-back, the average is 806m. The comparable figures for the North Sea are 129m and 168m. Rather than combining with existing platform infrastructure (as in the North Sea), subsea growth in Asia seems to be being driven by deepwater projects like Gehem, Gendalo and satellites like Gandang (off Indonesia).

MOPUs Multiplying

This suggestion is reinforced by the trend in Mobile Production Unit deployment in the region. While 5% of active fields in the OPA are MOPU developments, 15% of fields under development will employ MOPUs. In deep water, satellite fields with subsea producers are often tied to MOPUs, especially in later project phases. South East Asia accounts for 44% of global developments by MOPUs other than FPSOs (e.g. TLPs or jack-ups).

Fixed platforms will remain common in Asia, particularly given a push to develop many marginal Malaysian fields. Yet equipment and service suppliers will be encouraged by the growth in more complex development types, as more fields are developed and then start up in deeper waters.