Archives for posts with tag: container market

There have been plenty of record breaking facts and figures to report across 2016, unfortunately mostly of a gloomy nature! From a record low for the Baltic Dry Index in February to a post-1990 low for the ClarkSea Index in August, there have certainly been plenty of challenges. That hasn’t stopped investors however (S&P not newbuilds) so let’s hope for less record breakers (except demolition!?) in 2017.SIW1254

Unwelcome Records….

Our first record to report came in August when the ClarkSea Index hit a post-1990 low of $7,073/day. Its average for the year was $9,441/day, down 35% y-o-y and also beating the previous cyclical lows in 2010 and 1999. With OPEX for the same basket of ships at $6,394/day, margins were thin or non-existent.

Challenges Abound….

Across sectors, average tanker earnings for the year were “OK” but still wound down by 40%, albeit from an excellent 2015. Despite a good start and end to the year, the wet markets were hit hard by a weak summer when production outages impacted. The early part of the year also brought us another unwelcome milestone: the Baltic Dry Index falling to an all time low of 291. Heavy demolition in the first half and better than expected Chinese trade helped later in the year – fundamentals may be starting to turn but perhaps taking time to play out with bumps on the way. The container market (see next week) had another tough year, including its first major corporate casualty for 30 years in Hanjin. LPG had a “hard” landing after a stellar 2015, LNG showed small improvements and specialised products started to ease back. As reported in our mid-year review, every “dog has its day” and in 2016, this was Ro-Ro and Ferry, with earnings 50% above the trend since 2009. Also spare a thought for the offshore sector, arguably facing an even more extreme scenario than shipping.

Buy, Buy, Buy….

In our review of 2015, we speculated that buyers might be “eyeing up a bottoming out dry cycle” in 2016 and a 24% increase in bulker tonnage bought and sold suggests a lot of owners agreed. Indeed, 44m dwt represents another all time record for bulker S&P, with prices increasing marginally after the first quarter and brokers regularly reporting numerous parties willing to inspect vessels coming for sale. Tanker investors were much more circumspect and volumes and prices both fell by a third. Greeks again topped the buyer charts, followed by the Chinese. Demo eased in 2H but (incl. containers) total volumes were up 14% (44m dwt).

Order Drought….

Depending on your perspective, an overall 71% drop in ordering (total orders also hit a 35 year record low) is either cause for optimism or for further gloom! In fact, only 113 yards took orders (for vessels 1,000+ GT) in the year, compared to 345 in 2013, with tanker orders down 83% and bulkers down 46%. There was little ordering in any sector, except Cruise (a record 2.5m GT and $15.6bn), Ferry and Ro-Ro (all niche business however and of little help to volume yards).

Final Record….

Finally a couple more records – global fleet growth of 3% to 1.8bn dwt (up 50% since the financial crisis with tankers at 555m dwt and bulkers at 794m dwt) and trade growth of 2.6% to 11.1bn tonnes (up 3bn tonnes since the financial crisis) mean we still finish with the largest fleet and trade volumes of all time! Plenty of challenges again in 2017 but let’s hope we aren’t reporting as many gloomy records next year.
Have a nice New Year!

Advertisements

In today’s container shipping market, the presence of a group of ‘charter owners’ who account for a significant part of the fleet is an accepted part of the landscape. But this has not always been the case; it has taken a number of phases of investment to bolster the capacity of this important part of the boxship ownership spectrum, and in today’s environment it’s worth taking a closer look at the past.

An Equal Share

Container ‘liner’ operators deploy tonnage owned by themselves and also capacity provided by independent ‘charter owners’. In today’s fleet there are 5,126 boxships, and charter owners account for 2,722 of them, equivalent to 53% of the units and 48% of the TEU capacity. However, this wasn’t always the case. Back in the early 90s the liner companies owned 75% or more of the capacity, and the charter market was embryonic.

Phases One & Two

A key driver of change was increased investment in boxships in Germany backed by the ‘KG’ finance system, allowing ship owners and managers to access private investment, offering investors a tax break in the form of accelerated depreciation in return. 285 charter owned ships in today’s fleet were built in 1996-98 (Phase 1), 139 (49%) of them owned by German companies. By 1999 charter owners accounted for 35% of global TEU. Though the benefits of the KG system were eventually limited to tonnage tax gains, the early 2000s saw renewed German investment. Of today’s charter-owner fleet, 700 units were built in 2000-05 (Phase 2), 424 (61%) owned by Germans. This took the charter owner share of TEU to 47% by 2006. Some Greek and Japanese owners had also become established but Germans led the way.

Fast Then Slow

Phase 3 followed. During the great ordering boom, German owners invested even more heavily, swept along by positive sentiment and earnings, as well as the availability of ‘easy’ finance. Of today’s charter owner fleet, 1,113 units were delivered 2006-10, 701 (63%) of them German owned. By 2011, 51% of global TEU was charter owned. But with the credit crunch in 2008, the KG system collapsed and charter owner ordering slowed.

Time For New Phases?

Of today’s charter owner fleet, just 402 units were built in 2011 or since (Phase 4), with only 178 of them German owned (44%). The charter owner share of TEU began to fall. Although others entered the charter owner arena, including Greeks, Chinese and ‘new’ shipping money, nothing as yet has quite replaced the volumes provided by the Germans. Charter owners account for 68% of capacity on order today, but the average number of charter owner ships built in the last 5 years is half the number built in the previous 10.

So, with steady demand growth a reasonable bet, and an apparent gap in the investment profile, market watchers await to see who might step forward. Despite operators focussing their firepower on very large ships, today’s orderbook stands at a relatively modest 18% of the fleet. For investors looking to become a fixture, might boxship charter ownership offer opportunities for new phases?

SIW1169

Eleven years ago in 2003, when China opened its doors and the steel boom got underway, the shipping community was suddenly presented with an ‘Aladdin’s Cave’ of cargo. Unlike Japan and Korea, China had not locked in the fleet of ships it would need. So the escalating imports of iron ore soon turned into a gold mine for shipping. With so much cargo and a limited fleet of ships, Capesize rates surged.

Unexpected Riches

Shipping has always done well out of “miracle” economies, but the Chinese growth surge which followed was special. In the next decade, Chinese industry, especially steelmaking, grew faster than anyone could possibly have predicted. In 2003 the Chinese government thought steel production would reach 300mt in 2010. Actual output in 2010 was 627mt. The effect on trade was profound. China’s seaborne imports quadrupled, reaching 2 billion tonnes in 2013, by far the most any country has ever imported in a year. The freight boom this triggered between 2003 and 2008 was also arguably the best in the industry’s history.

Even after the Credit Crisis in 2008, China kept expanding, with just one short-lived wobble in 2009. This growth helped cushion shipowners from a 1980s style meltdown that might otherwise have hit the bulk and container markets.

Unavoidable Evolution

But in the real world, economies move on and there are many signs that change is underway. China is a very big country, and some provinces are still poor, but across the economy activity is slowing. Industrial production growth fell to 6.9% year-on-year in August and the dollar value of export trade, which for many years grew at about 20-30% pa, only managed 8% in 2013.

The real change this year has been in steel and construction. Official statistics suggest that floor space under construction is down 17% year-on-year and house completion is down about 30% this year. Some Beijing analysts are predicting much lower house building over the next two years. Although iron ore imports are up by 18% year-on-year, steel production is only growing at 5%. Not a good omen. Meanwhile steel prices have slumped another 5-10% and steel exports are up 37%. All signs of market weakness.

Value-Added Production

Of course these trends could be cyclical, but China is a very different economy from 10 years ago. A new generation has grown up with computers, smartphones, cars, fashion and confidence. Environmental concern, which triggered the impending ban on high sulphur coal imports, illustrates the way these changes can trickle through into trade.

New Trend, Old Story

So there you have it. China’s sprint for growth is easing off and it is projected that imports will grow 5% this year. This is way below the 10-20% pa of the boom years. It happened to Japan and Europe in the 1960s and to South Korea in the 1980s and 1990s. So does that mean ‘Aladdin’s Cave’ is empty? Such a big cave with so many dark corners, makes it hard to say, but it’s a serious issue for investors. Have a nice day.

SIW1143