Archives for category: shipping intelligence weekly

Economists use a range of tools to demonstrate the degree of fragmentation, consolidation, or in economic terms, ‘concentration’ across a range of industrial activity. Shipping is often thought of as a fairly fragmented industry, and the shipbuilding industry is today undergoing a period of significant consolidation. How might an economics approach illustrate the prevailing degree of concentration in each case?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

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A common ‘rule of thumb’ statistic in shipping market analysis, in order to give an idea of prospective capacity growth, is the orderbook expressed as a percentage of the existing fleet. Today, at a global fleet level, that figure stands at a historically relatively low level in dwt terms (10%), but what does that actually tell us? This week’s Analysis takes a look at the pros and cons of this widely used statistic.

 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The container shipping sector derives many of its characteristics from the dual but separate nature of the freight and charter markets, and 2018 so far has seen some distinctly ‘two-tier’ trends in the box shipping space, with freight and charter rates experiencing a clear difference in performance. What has caused that to happen, and how likely is it to be sustained?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Shipping market watchers tend to keep a keen eye on prices for younger vessels, with indicators such as the ratio of newbuild to 5 year old prices often key to views on asset play. But decisions towards the end of a ship’s life are important too, and looking at the ratio between secondhand and scrap prices for vessels of an older vintage may help to illuminate the choices facing shipowners.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

With the industry hoping for better “grades” after the “effort” of recent years, this week’s Analysis updates our half year shipping report showing a ClarkSea Index up 9% y-o-y but still below trend since the financial crisis (see Graph of the Week). After comments of “must do better” and “showing potential” in recent years, do the statistics suggest “extra classes” will again be needed over the summer holidays?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Since 1.73m bpd of oil output cuts were orchestrated by OPEC in November 2016, oil prices have risen from under $50/bbl to $70-$80/bbl, stimulating the upstream sector but making for a gloomy backdrop to challenged tanker markets in the last 18 months. With this context in mind and following the latest OPEC meeting, it is worth looking in detail at some of the ways OPEC policy has been influencing oil markets…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

2018 so far has been a year of firming oil prices. Despite continued strong output growth from US shale, the crude price has risen, with Brent even topping $80/bbl, fuelled by political risk: Venezuelan instability, North Korea and sanctions on Iran. Supply outages, plus higher prices muting demand, have hit the tanker market. However, the flip side has been more positive indications (at last) in the offshore sector.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.