Archives for category: Shipping Intelligence Network

In these extraordinary times, the cancellation of school exams has been one of many unprecedented events. As we examine performance in our half year report, this is not an option for the shipping industry as it battles through the many challenges (and some upside) that Covid-19 has brought: a severe 5.6% drop in seaborne trade; a 10% drop in port activity; sharp declines in demolition and newbuild ordering.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Relations between the US and China have been back in the headlines recently, with tensions seemingly on the rise once more. For the shipping industry, the US-China ‘trade war’ was one of the key issues of 2018-19, and the ‘phase one’ trade deal in early 2020 was an encouraging sign that US-China trade could pick up. But with Covid-19 dominating trends in the year to date, how have volumes fared so far?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Three weeks ago, Shipping Intelligence Weekly considered the effect of global efforts to moderate climate change, and the potential maritime impacts of ‘energy transition’ and decarbonisation (see SIW 1,422, 15th May 2020). This week’s Analysis continues the story, looking at scenarios for the future shape of energy production offshore which may play out as patterns of world energy use evolve.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

That recent times have been a good demonstration of shipping market volatility comes as no surprise. There have been more than enough major events to drive significant fluctuations in our ClarkSea Index, and the statistics make this clear. Developments in the tanker sector have recently dominated the index trend in terms of volatility, but that doesn’t mean that every sector has followed quite the same storyline… 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

The ‘shock’ to the world economy from the Covid-19 pandemic is exerting clear pressure on seaborne trade. Significant uncertainty remains over the outlook, but current projections suggest the sharpest fall in global seaborne trade for over 35 years in 2020. However, impacts vary across the shipping sectors, with some commodities appearing more heavily exposed to disruption than others.

For the full version of this article, please go to
Shipping Intelligence Network

 

As observed in our Shipping Market Impact Assessment (see SIN), some sectors of economic and seaborne activity are more heavily exposed to the impacts of Covid-19 than others. Previous Analysis has, for example, focussed on global oil demand (SIW 1417), and here we consider the effects on global container trade, the magnitude in a historical context, and the potential nature of the impact as it develops.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

With Covid-19 generating major disruption to the world economy and shipping industry, in recent weeks our Analysis has often focussed on demand side “shocks”. However, a range of supply-side impacts are also taking place, with key metrics changing rapidly. Activity is down across shipyard output, newbuild ordering and vessel demolition, with the risk profile evolving as the impact of the pandemic has spread.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Hard to believe it’s only six months since we reported the sanctions driven “super-spike”, and harder still to think it’s only six weeks since the collapse of OPEC+ talks took rates back to “heroic” levels! As tanker owners now try to weigh up the huge imbalances building in the energy markets and exactly how much oil the world needs to store afloat, this week’s Analysis reviews an extraordinary tanker market run.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Last week’s Analysis took a long-term view of seaborne trade. This week, we look at the history of global oil demand, a key driver of seaborne trade (crude and products trade totalled 62m bpd last year, 25% of the total in tonnes), offshore oil production (25m bpd), and oil prices. In 2020, the now global spread of Covid-19 is leading to major disruption to oil demand, and the ‘long’ view provides an interesting context.
Shipping Intelligence Network.

In last week’s Analysis we noted that the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to months of major disruption and a “bumpy ride” for the shipping markets. This week we take a look back through our long history of seaborne trade data and review the differences between the impacts of previous major disruptions on the periods that followed…

 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.