Archives for category: Seaborne Trade

Back in April (see SIW 1,418), aggregate port call data helped our “near-term” assessment of the size of the initial “shock” and disruption to shipping market activity from the Covid-19 pandemic. Across the following six months, the data has formed part of our tracking of the ongoing impact (see our ‘Port Call Activity Tracker’ on SIN), and continues to provide context and framework.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

In these extraordinary times, the cancellation of school exams has been one of many unprecedented events. As we examine performance in our half year report, this is not an option for the shipping industry as it battles through the many challenges (and some upside) that Covid-19 has brought: a severe 5.6% drop in seaborne trade; a 10% drop in port activity; sharp declines in demolition and newbuild ordering.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Relations between the US and China have been back in the headlines recently, with tensions seemingly on the rise once more. For the shipping industry, the US-China ‘trade war’ was one of the key issues of 2018-19, and the ‘phase one’ trade deal in early 2020 was an encouraging sign that US-China trade could pick up. But with Covid-19 dominating trends in the year to date, how have volumes fared so far?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

In our March semi-annual report, we cited satellite imagery of reduced pollution as economic activity slowed as a “stark reminder of climate change”. In this week’s Analysis, we look at some of the challenges (and opportunities) the shipping industry potentially faces with its cargo base, changes in offshore activity and in reducing its own emissions footprint through fuel transition, technology and regulation.

For the full version of this article, please go to
Shipping Intelligence Network

As observed in our Shipping Market Impact Assessment (see SIN), some sectors of economic and seaborne activity are more heavily exposed to the impacts of Covid-19 than others. Previous Analysis has, for example, focussed on global oil demand (SIW 1417), and here we consider the effects on global container trade, the magnitude in a historical context, and the potential nature of the impact as it develops.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Last week’s Analysis took a long-term view of seaborne trade. This week, we look at the history of global oil demand, a key driver of seaborne trade (crude and products trade totalled 62m bpd last year, 25% of the total in tonnes), offshore oil production (25m bpd), and oil prices. In 2020, the now global spread of Covid-19 is leading to major disruption to oil demand, and the ‘long’ view provides an interesting context.
Shipping Intelligence Network.

Shipping and energy are two central features of the modern globalised economy. Indeed, in 2019 total seaborne trade is projected to exceed 12bn tonnes, while primary energy demand is expected to stand at over 14bn tonnes of oil equivalent: around 1.6 tonnes of seaborne trade and 1.8 toe of energy for everyone on the planet. What is the relationship between these salient features of global economic activity?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

It is well known that China ‘turbo-charged’ seaborne trade growth from the early 2000s onwards, as the country’s imports of raw materials such as iron ore, coal and crude oil grew at breakneck speed. Following a 2018 in which Chinese LNG imports represented 60% (15 million tonnes) of net global growth in seaborne LNG trade, it seems only natural to ask, could recent history repeat itself with LNG?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Environmental concerns are increasingly to the fore in world political economy, with the global energy mix and questions of “peak demand” for different fossil fuels receiving increasing attention as a result. While there is clearly still much uncertainty around this topic, it is worth exploring how shipping continues to develop alongside the changing dynamics of the global energy mix.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Powered by ongoing innovation, drilling activity and infrastructure projects, the US energy revolution seems to be continuing apace, with the country likely to become a consistent net crude oil exporter within a few years. But as the recent FID at the 15.6 mtpa Golden Pass LNG plant in Texas suggests, seaborne LNG trade is being significantly affected by the shale boom in the US’s vast interior too…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.