Archives for category: Oil

Last week’s Analysis took a long-term view of seaborne trade. This week, we look at the history of global oil demand, a key driver of seaborne trade (crude and products trade totalled 62m bpd last year, 25% of the total in tonnes), offshore oil production (25m bpd), and oil prices. In 2020, the now global spread of Covid-19 is leading to major disruption to oil demand, and the ‘long’ view provides an interesting context.
Shipping Intelligence Network.

Exploration drilling has naturally faced cutbacks since the offshore downturn. As discretionary spending, it typically suffers in weaker markets. Yet, as 2019 began, it seemed like several promising wildcat wells were on the horizon. Some wells have delivered key discoveries, likely to add impetus toward project FIDs. But other high-profile campaigns have disappointed. So, what’s succeeded and what’s failed?

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

One of the most important building blocks of shipping market economics is the concept of the ‘delivered cost’ of a commodity and freight’s part within it. In general, the freight element of the cost of delivering (i.e. selling from the point of origin and shipping to the buyer) of a commodity is only a limited part of the total delivered cost. This has key implications for shipping market behaviour.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Offshore exploration has been challenged since the onset of the downturn. There have been some major discoveries in countries such as Guyana and Mauritania, but oil company exploration spending remains significantly lower than pre-downturn outlay, and in 2018 offshore discoveries fell to the lowest level in around 50 years. That being said, might there now be signs of some improvement to come?

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

The offshore sector has seen some impressive gas projects over the last decade, from the development of the vast South Pars/North Field to the start-up of pioneering mega-projects off Australia and the introduction of FLNGs. Accounting for 32% of total gas output, offshore gas is now a key part of the global energy mix. But similar could be said of US shale gas. So how do shale and offshore gas measure up?

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

Powered by ongoing innovation, drilling activity and infrastructure projects, the US energy revolution seems to be continuing apace, with the country likely to become a consistent net crude oil exporter within a few years. But as the recent FID at the 15.6 mtpa Golden Pass LNG plant in Texas suggests, seaborne LNG trade is being significantly affected by the shale boom in the US’s vast interior too…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Across the global seaborne trade spectrum, crude oil is generally seen as a fairly mature element, and average growth of not much more than 1% p.a. across the period since the financial crisis appears to back that up. But in that period there have also been dynamics at play which have had a major impact on tanker demand patterns, and on closer inspection it has not been the slow lane all the way either…

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

The year just gone was a mixed one for offshore. Incremental progress continued towards rebalancing, while some sectors saw small day rate improvements compared to 2017. Overall though, challenges persisted in an oil price environment characterised by uncertainty and volatility. Several key indicators underperformed relative to start year sentiment and the year ended on something of a negative note.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

Following the recent oil price plunge, US shale oil production growth has been in the headlines once again, this time as one of the main factors behind the latest slide in oil prices. However, it can still be tricky to appreciate just how significant US shale oil output has now become to global oil markets. Comparing this year’s surge in output against some offshore benchmarks can be helpful.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.

Oil prices have always been big news for shipping and offshore, and are currently making the headlines. Since early October, crude prices have undergone one of the lengthiest periods of steady decline on record. Whilst the steep drops from the heights of $147/bbl in 2008 and $114/bbl in 2014 were clearly more substantial as a whole, the recent downward trend is certainly noteworthy. So what’s going on?

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.