Last week’s Analysis took a long-term view of seaborne trade. This week, we look at the history of global oil demand, a key driver of seaborne trade (crude and products trade totalled 62m bpd last year, 25% of the total in tonnes), offshore oil production (25m bpd), and oil prices. In 2020, the now global spread of Covid-19 is leading to major disruption to oil demand, and the ‘long’ view provides an interesting context.
Shipping Intelligence Network.

In last week’s Analysis we noted that the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak could lead to months of major disruption and a “bumpy ride” for the shipping markets. This week we take a look back through our long history of seaborne trade data and review the differences between the impacts of previous major disruptions on the periods that followed…

 

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Even for an industry used to disruption events, the impact of Covid-19 has been dramatic. Extracted from our upcoming Shipping Review & Outlook (SRO), our Analysis this week covers some of the underlying trends we have discussed previously (ClarkSea, global trade, energy transition, “manageable” supply, environment, finance), but the disruption “shock” from Covid-19 now dominates.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

So often shipping market observers’ attention centres on new ships but shipping’s ongoing fuel transition has also focussed discussion on the older, often less fuel-efficient tonnage in today’s world fleet. In order to understand how the phase out of older ships might look, and estimate its potential impact in certain areas, it”s worth taking a look at the age profile of the world’s tonnage in more detail.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

A shrinking global orderbook has been one of the more persistent features of the post-financial crisis years, with the volume of tonnage on order now down to c.30% of peak levels. However, a substantial volume of newbuild investment has still taken place over the period as a whole, and a greater focus on specific vessel types has left the current orderbook looking very different to a decade earlier.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

 

Even for an industry used to disruption, shipping has been struggling with the scale and dynamic nature of the Covid-19 outbreak. Starting in its largest market (China: 22% of seaborne imports), the initial shipping impact was felt quickly and severely. And while there are signs that the Chinese impact may be starting to stabilise (see graph), the focus has shifted to broader global impacts, and investor sentiment.

For the full version of this article, please go to Shipping Intelligence Network.

Offshore contracting has remained at extremely low levels for a number of years, and the mobile offshore orderbook has now shrunk to less than a quarter of its peak size. Furthermore, the majority of units on order in the MDU and OSV sectors were now contracted more than five years ago. This month’s Analysis examines what’s still on the orderbook and where solutions have been found.

For the full version of this article, please go to Offshore Intelligence Network.